FILE 03 / 12 · EVIDENCE RECORD
ev-earth-shadow-deficit
Reported Flashes Became Rarer Where Earth Blocked the Sun
The Earth-Shadow Deficit · POSS-I plates, 1949–1957
A reported reflected-light pattern at satellite altitude before satellites
In the research record
Before Sputnik, astronomers surveyed the sky by exposing large photographic plates through telescopes. Each exposure preserved the positions of stars and any brief points of light bright enough to register during those minutes. The Palomar survey originals were also reproduced as glass copy sets for use at other observatories. Modern catalogues used in this research were built from digitized scans of those copies. That preserved the sky well enough to measure it again, but the copying process also created one of the central artifact questions in the dispute.
A star produces its own light. It does not disappear because Earth's shadow falls across nearby space. An object seen because it reflects sunlight is different. If Earth moves between that object and the Sun, sunlight no longer reaches it, so its reflection should disappear from the photograph.
Researchers took transient candidates from the first Palomar Observatory Sky Survey and calculated where Earth's shadow would have crossed each photographed field if the sources were at different distances from Earth. This was not a distance measurement of any individual flash. It was a population test: at what assumed distance, if any, did the recorded flashes become rarer inside the calculated shadow?
The strongest reported deficit appeared at geosynchronous distance. Far fewer candidates were found where Earth's shadow would have blocked sunlight from objects in that region of space. The tested orbit has a radius of 42,164 kilometers from Earth's center, approximately 35,786 kilometers above the surface.
That gives the observation physical meaning. If the candidate flashes are real sky events, the distribution behaves as reflected light should behave near the altitude now occupied by geosynchronous satellites. The analysis does not show what produced the reflections, and it does not measure the distance to any individual source.
What this adds
Before satellites, the reported flashes became rarer exactly where Earth would have blocked sunlight from reflective objects at the altitude where geosynchronous satellites now orbit.
Status: peer-reviewed finding, actively disputed. The originating analysis reports a strong population deficit in the calculated Earth-shadow region. A later critique argues that the result does not survive its strictest candidate-vetting choices; the authors' response retains the result under a different plate-selection treatment. The disagreement remains unresolved.
In the novel
In Chapter 15, the shadow deficit changes the archive from testimony into geometry. If the transient candidates were reflections from objects near geosynchronous altitude, fewer should appear where Earth blocks the sunlight, and that is the distribution the originating analysis reports. The team is careful about what follows: the altitude is inferred from the assumed shadow geometry, not measured by parallax, and the result survives only if the candidates are real flashes. The novel keeps the dispute in the room because the disagreement is not over what a shadow would mean. It is over which points belong in the count.
Technical recordThe exact figures and specialist detail behind the finding.
The originating paper reports two different significance values because it asks the question in two different ways. A simplified hemispheric comparison produced approximately 21.9 sigma. A plate-normalized analysis using the actual survey coverage produced approximately 7.6 sigma. The second model is the more realistic treatment of where the telescope actually looked. Both values are reported results, not independent measurements, and neither resolves the dispute over which transient candidates belong in the sample.
The disputeThe published objection and the response, in full, with their sources.
Watters and colleagues argue that candidate vetting, catalogue construction, and plate-selection effects can generate or erase the apparent deficit. In their most strictly filtered subset, they do not recover it. Villarroel and colleagues respond that this filtering removes large parts of the usable plate population and report that the deficit remains when the analysis is restricted in a different way to central plate regions intended to reduce edge artifacts. The dispute is therefore not over what Earth's shadow would mean if the population is real. It is over whether the surviving candidate set is reliable enough for that geometry to carry the claimed weight.
| Source | Status | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Watters, Wesley Andrés, Laura Dominé, Sarah Little, Cameron Pratt, Kevin H. Knuth, and Matthew Szenher. “Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates.” arXiv:2601.21946 (2026).arXiv:2601.21946 | Preprint | critique |
| Villarroel, Beatriz, Alina Streblyanska, Stephen Bruehl, and Stefan Geier. “A Response to Paper ‘Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates’ by Watters et al. (2026).” arXiv:2602.15171 (2026).arXiv:2602.15171 | Preprint | response |
| Source | Status | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Villarroel, Beatriz, et al. “Aligned, Multiple-transient Events in the First Palomar Sky Survey.” Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific 137, 104504 (2025). DOI: 10.1088/1538-3873/ae0afe.DOI: 10.1088/1538-3873/ae0afe | Peer-reviewed | finding |
| Doherty, Brian. “Independent Replication of Nuclear Test-Transient Correlations and Earth Shadow Deficit in POSS-I Photographic Plates.” arXiv:2604.00056 (2026).arXiv:2604.00056 | Preprint | independent reanalysis |
| Watters, Wesley Andrés, Laura Dominé, Sarah Little, Cameron Pratt, Kevin H. Knuth, and Matthew Szenher. “Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates.” arXiv:2601.21946 (2026).arXiv:2601.21946 | Preprint | critique |
| Villarroel, Beatriz, Alina Streblyanska, Stephen Bruehl, and Stefan Geier. “A Response to Paper ‘Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates’ by Watters et al. (2026).” arXiv:2602.15171 (2026).arXiv:2602.15171 | Preprint | response |
| Bruehl, Stephen, and Beatriz Villarroel. “Transients in the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS-I) May Be Associated with Nuclear Testing and Reports of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.” Scientific Reports 15, 34125 (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-21620-3.DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-21620-3 | Peer-reviewed | context |